Historically, September has been a bearish month for BTC. In September 2020 and 2021, the Bitcoin price decreased by slightly more than 7%. However, what is interesting in these movements, is that they were surrounded by large bullish outbreaks. This is especially evident in 2020, when the September was followed by six bullish months.
2017, 2018, and 2019 showed decreases of 8.50%, 6.75%, and 14.14%, respectively, meaning that the last five September movements have been bearish. The 2018 and 2019 candlesticks occurred in indeterminant trends, but the 2017 candlestick was extremely similar to the 2020 and 2021 ones, where it was surrounded by bullish candlesticks inside a bullish trend.
2015 and 2016 had bullish September movements, though they were relatively small. 2014 gave us the largest ever September drop of 19%, while 2013 also saw some losses in the month.
Realized cap and market cap
The bearish September perspective is also supported by on-chain metrics, more specifically the market cap (MC) and the realized cap (RC). The former is created by multiplying the total number of coins that are minted with the current BTC price. The latter uses a slightly different formula, using the price at the time a transaction last occurred rather than the current price.
As a result of this modification, it can be seen as a more precise representation of the current value of BTC, since it devalues coins that have not moved for a long time and those that are lost.
The most interesting aspect of the MC and the RC is the relationship between them. Historically, periods in which the MC has fallen below the RC have been associated with bottoms. Additionally, these periods have not lasted long. The maximum amount of time in which MC has fallen below RC was an 11-month period that began back in January 2015.
Following this, the 2018 correction also marked a five-month period in which the MC was lower than the RC, while in 2020 this same occurrence lasted for a short two-week blip.
With the exception of a very slight reclamation during the end of the 2015 bottom, once the MC reclaims the RC, it does not fall below it again for a long length of time.
To conclude, when combining on-chain metrics with the historical performance in September, it is possible that BTC will post a slightly bearish monthly close in 2022.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin price remained well supported above the$19,550 zone. BTC formed a base and started a fresh upward move above the $20,000 resistance zone.
There was a push above the $20,200 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The price even cleared the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $20,576 swing high to $19,555 low. However, the price stayed below the $20,550 resistance zone.
Bitcoin price is now trading near the $20,000 level and the100 hourly simple moving average. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the $20,350 level.
There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $20,330 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The trend line is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $20,576 swing high to $19,555 low.
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The next major resistance sits near the $20,550 and $20,575 levels. A clear move above the $20,575 resistance might send the price towards $21,000. Any more gains might start a steady move towards the $22,000 resistance zone.
If bitcoin fails to clear the $20,550 resistance zone, it could start another decline. An immediate support on the downside is near the $20,000 zone.
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level
Major Support Levels – $19,880, followed by $19,500
Major Resistance Levels – $20,350, $20,550 and $21,000
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