Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of crypto exchange BitMex, said in an interview on the Bankless YouTube channel that as long as the Ethereum Merge is a success, then in his view the ETH price should hit $3,000 by the end of this year.
He said that this was a fairly unique event, and that its issuance would be hugely impacted: “Here is an emissions schedule, an inflation schedule, and a value. We know where it’s going to be afterwards. We know it’s almost impossible for you to pre-trade this situation. The flows are just going to be the flows – similar to a bitcoin halving. We know how Bitcoin halvings have panned out over time. So, I love this trade!”
He thinks that it is such a sure thing that he can even be wrong about the Fed pivoting, and that the flows can be so strong that they can overcome a negative macro environment.
Hayes says that the Ethereum network still has the most TVL (total value locked), and the most activity, in that people are still widely using applications based on Ethereum.
For Hayes, it’s not important that Ethereum might not come good over time, or that one day it may be surpassed by one of its competitors, or that the macro environment could be such that most other assets are forced down.
In his opinion, this Ethereum trade is a one-off event, which should be successful as long as the Merge itself comes off without a hitch. The ensuing reduction in issuance makes the trade a no-brainer.
When asked why, if the trade was such a sure thing, was it not priced in by the market, Hayes replied that people weren’t sure that the Merge would actually work. He said that for him, he actually needed to see that everything switched over without a hitch, without bugs in the code, and that there wouldn’t suddenly be a need for a hard-fork to switch back to PoW should it not function correctly.
When pressed for a price forecast, Hayes said that he was expecting to see $3000 by the year’s end. With ETH currently trading at around $1,640 it would have to nearly double in price over the next 3 months or so.
Ethereum price analysis
Ethereum formed a base andstarted a major increase above $1,600. ETH was able to clear the key $1,620 resistance zone and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The price is now trading above $1,650 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It is also testing the $1,700 resistance zone.
Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com
If Ethereum fails to rise above the $1,735 resistance, it could start a downside correction. An initial support on the downside is near the $1,660 zone.
Hourly MACD –gaining momentum in the bullish zone
Hourly RSI –above the 50 level
Major Support Level – $1,600
Major Resistance Level – $1,735
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